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Maks Romanov -> Ukraine war: What might tip the balance? (26.5.2022 14:59:04)
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Russia''''s war in Ukraine has become an increasingly grinding and bloody affair, with each side wearing the other down. Both claim to have made recent gains. But they''''ve also suffered set__backs.
Overall, Russia is still the dominant force and has significant military might - but there has been no swift victory as planned. Here, we take a closer look at some of the things which could tilt the outcome in favour of either party.
Gains and losses
In the north, a Ukrainian counter-offensive has successfully pushed back Russian forces from the city of Kharkiv. In the south, Russia has all but cleared out the final pockets of resistance in the port city of Mariupol. Both have been costly in terms of military and civilian casualties, but neither is likely to prove decisive.
What''''s happened in Mariupol and Kharkiv highlights the ebb and flow of this conflict. That pattern of costly gains and losses is now being repeated in the east of the country.
Russia has been making small but steady advances in the Donbas - the renewed focus of its offensive. But it''''s also suffered set__backs - as highlighted by the destruction earlier this month of dozens of Russian armoured vehicles trying to cross the Siversky Donets river.
Russia''''s advantage - artillery
In the east, each side is exchanging heavy, grinding blows using artillery. Ben Barry, a former British Army brigadier who is now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, says that will continue to be the case in the battle of the Donbas.
He predicts artillery will be the main cause of casualties on both sides for weeks and months to come. Western officials have highlighted significant Russian losses, but they have been less willing to give estimates of Ukrainian casualties.
Ukraine is now receiving Western-supplied heavy weapons - including US M777 howitzers. It has also been sent counter-artillery radar systems - to help find and target Russia''''s artillery lines. But Ukraine is still outgunned.
Tactics
Russia has been using its artillery and rocket launchers to tie down Ukrainian forces who are dug in - along well prepared defensive lines. Russia has been pressing from two main directions - from Izyum in the north and from the west around the city of Severedonetsk. They have made limited advances in both directions.
Brig Barry says it appears that Russia is "trying to bleed Ukraine dry" by forcing it to concentrate its forces at key points, which can then be targeted by its artillery. Military analysts believe Ukraine is likely to have suffered significant casualties as a result.
However, he says Ukraine will still be able to use urban areas in the Donbas to slow down Russia''''s advances. Fighting in town and cities, as has been shown throughout this war, favours the defender.
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